U.S. Recession Probabilities

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Release Date: September 26, 2025

New releases of recession probabilities are on hold due to the Federal Government shutdown.

Probability that the U.S. Economy was in Recession in August 2025: 1.0%

For a time series of smoothed recession probabilities back to June 1967, select one of the following:

Graph

Excel File

FRED Database

Questions? See the FAQ.