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Jeremy M. Piger
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    Jeremy Piger

    Jeremy Piger

    Professor of Economics at the University of Oregon

    • Eugene, Oregon, USA
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    U.S. Recession Probabilities


    Release Date: May 26, 2023

    Probability that the U.S. Economy was in Recession in April 2023: 0.4%

    For a time series of smoothed recession probabilities from June 1967 through April 2023, select one of the following:

    Graph

    Excel File

    Fred Database

    Questions? See the FAQ.

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