Jeremy Piger

Professor of Economics at the University of Oregon

Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Larger in Recessions? A Reconciliation of the Evidence
with Thomas Stockwell
The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, in press.

Contagious Switching
with Michael Owyang and Daniel Soquez
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2022, v. 37, iss. 2, pp. 415-432.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis blog post

Structural Breaks in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach
with Adam Check
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2021, v. 53, iss. 8, pp. 1999-2036.
Online Appendix

An N-State Endogenous Markov-Switching Model with Applications in Macroeconomics and Finance
with Chang-Jin Kim and Shih-Tang Hwu
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2019, v. 27, iss. 8, pp. 1937-1965.

Turning Points and Classification
in Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data, 2020, Peter Fuleky (ed.), Springer, pp. 585-624.

Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points in Real Time with Vector Quantization
with Andrea Giusto
International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, v. 33, iss. 1, pp. 174-184. Replication Files
Raw Real-Time Dataset

Forecasting National Recessions Using State-Level Data
with Michael Owyang and Howard Wall
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2015, v. 47, iss. 5, pp. 847-866.

Inflation in the G7: Mind the Gap(s)?
with James Morley and Robert Rasche
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2015, v. 19, iss. 4, pp. 883-912.

Comovement in GDP Trends and Cycles Among Trading Partners
with Bruce Blonigen and Nicholas Sly
Journal of International Economics, 2014, v. 94, iss. 2, pp. 239-247.

Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment
with Bruce Blonigen
Canadian Journal of Economics, 2014, v. 47, iss. 3, pp. 775-812. FDI Data

Reproducing Business Cycle Features: Are Nonlinear Dynamics a Proxy for Multivariate Information?
with James Morley and Pao-Lin Tien
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2013, v. 17, iss. 5, pp. 483-498.

Employment and the Business Cycle
with Marcelle Chauvet
The Manchester School, 2013, v. 81, iss. S2, pp. 16-42.

Discordant City Employment Cycles
with Michael Owyang and Howard Wall
Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2013, v. 43, iss. 2, pp. 367-384.

Discussion of “The Statistical Behavior of GDP after Financial Crises and Severe Recessions,” by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan
B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2012, v. 12, iss. 3.
Slides from conference discussion

Beyond the Numbers: Measuring the Information Content of Earnings Press Release Language
with Angela Davis and Lisa Sedor
Contemporary Accounting Research, 2012, v. 29, iss. 3, pp. 845-868.

The Asymmetric Business Cycle
with James Morley
Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012, v. 94, iss. 1, 208-221.
Data and Gauss Code

Measuring the Information Content of the Beige Book: A Mixed Data Sampling Approach
with Michelle Armesto, Ruben Hernandez-Murillo, and Michael Owyang
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2009, v. 41, iss. 1, pp. 35-55.

Models of Regime Changes
Encyclopedia of Complexity and System Science, 2009, Springer.

Inflation: Do Expectations Trump the Gap?
with Robert Rasche
International Journal of Central Banking, 2008, v. 4, iss. 4, pp. 85-116.

Trend/Cycle Decomposition of Regime-Switching Processes
with James Morley
Journal of Econometrics, 2008, v. 146, iss. 2, pp. 220-226.

The Economic Performance of Cities: A Markov-Switching Approach
with Michael Owyang, Howard Wall and Christopher Wheeler
Journal of Urban Economics, 2008, v. 64, iss. 3, pp. 538-550.

A State-Level Analysis of the Great Moderation
with Michael Owyang and Howard Wall
Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2008, v. 38, iss. 6, pp. 578-589.

Estimation of Markov Regime-Switching Regression Models with Endogenous Switching
with Chang-Jin Kim and Richard Startz
Journal of Econometrics, 2008, v. 143, iss. 2, pp. 263-273.
Unpublished Appendix

Bayesian Counterfactual Analysis of the Sources of the Great Moderation
with Chang-Jin Kim and James Morley
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2008, v. 23, iss. 2, pp. 173-191.

A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods
with Marcelle Chauvet
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, v. 26, iss. 1, pp. 42-49.

The Dynamic Relationship Between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles
with Chang-Jin Kim and Richard Startz
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007, v. 39, iss. 1, pp. 187-204.

The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features
with James Morley
in Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, 2006, C. Milas, P. Rothman, and D. van Dijk (eds.), Elsevier, pp. 75-95.

Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States
with Michael Owyang and Howard Wall
Review of Economics and Statistics, 2005, v. 87, iss. 4, pp. 604-616.

The 2001 Recession and the States of the Eighth Federal Reserve District
with Michael Owyang and Howard Wall
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Regional Economic Development, 2005, v. 1, iss. 1, pp. 3-16.

Is the Response of Output to Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Regime-Switching Coefficients Model
with Ming Lo
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2005, v. 37, iss. 5, pp. 865-887.

Nonlinearity and the Permanent Effects of Recessions
with Chang-Jin Kim and James Morley
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2005, v. 20, iss. 2, pp. 291-309.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting
with Andrew Levin and Fabio Natalucci
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 2004, v. 86, iss. 4, pp. 51-80.

The Less Volatile U.S. Economy: A Bayesian Investigation of Timing, Breadth, and Potential Explanations
with Chang-Jin Kim and Charles Nelson
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2004, v. 22, iss. 1, pp. 80-93.

The Use and Abuse of “Real-Time” Data in Economic Forecasting
with Evan Koenig and Sheila Dolmas
Review of Economics and Statistics, 2003, v. 85, iss. 3, pp. 618-628.

Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points in Real Time
with Marcelle Chauvet
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 2003, v. 85, iss. 2, pp. 47-61.

Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations
with Chang-Jin Kim
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2002, v. 49, iss. 6, pp. 1189-1211.

Markov Regime Switching and Unit Root Tests
with Charles Nelson and Eric Zivot
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2001, v. 19, iss. 4, pp. 404-415.